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President Volodymyr Zelenskyy of Ukraine stated that a framework for a ceasefire agreement negotiated with US officials are poised to be completed in a matter of days. Following this, American envoys will present the terms to the Kremlin.

Berlin Talks Yield Major Headway, But Key Hurdles Remain

After two days of discussions in Berlin, US officials reported on Monday that around “90%” of the contentious issues between Russia and Ukraine had been resolved. Despite this optimistic assessment, the path to ending the conflict remains uncertain, particularly because the Russian absence from the ongoing discussions.

In the early hours of Tuesday, Zelenskyy said that the US Congress is expected to vote on security guarantees and that a finalised set of agreements might be ready “imminently.” He added that, the United States would hold consultations with Moscow, potentially followed by summit-level talks possibly this coming weekend.

Defense Assurances and International Support

“We are counting on five documents. Some of them concern binding security pledges: formally ratified, that is, voted on and approved by the US Congress,” Zelenskyy remarked to the press. He clarified that these assurances would “mirror the collective defense clause” of the Nato alliance.

On Monday, US officials did not provide specific details regarding the probable makeup of the defense package or the consequences if Moscow sought to capture more land after a peace deal. Officials did confirm that the United States does not intend to place boots on the ground in the country.

Heads of state from the United Kingdom, France, and Germany and eight other European countries said in a unified declaration that troops from a “coalition of the willing” could “assist in the regeneration of Ukraine’s forces, in protecting Ukraine’s skies, and in supporting maritime security, potentially by conducting operations within Ukraine.”

However, they did not suggesting these measures would serve as guarantees equivalent to Nato’s article 5. Furthermore, there is little sign that Moscow is anywhere close to agreeing to the kind of arrangement being negotiated between the U.S. and Ukraine.

Moscow's Stance and Land Issue

On Tuesday, the Kremlin stated it had not received the details of the plans for security guarantees. Additionally, a senior Russian diplomat, Sergey Ryabkov, asserted that the country would not agree to troops from NATO member states operating in Ukraine “under any circumstances.”

The primary obstacle between the Ukrainian team and US negotiators remains the territorial question. A key demand centers on Kyiv relinquishing the parts of the Donbas it currently controls, while the Ukrainian side wants to maintain the current front lines. “We are discussing the land dispute. You know, it is one of the key issues. Currently, there is no agreement on it yet,” Zelenskyy said after the Berlin talks.

The US negotiation team, headed by two senior advisors, has suggested a compromise solution. Under this plan would see Ukraine pull back, but Russian troops would not move forward, with the resulting zone established as “an open economic area.” Russia has suggested it could use police and national guard formations instead of the army in such an area, suggesting it would still seek to control the territory.

“I want to stress once again: a ‘free economic zone’ is not under the control of Moscow. Not legally or in practice do we accept the Donbas region – its temporarily occupied part – as belonging to Russia. Absolutely,” stated President Zelenskyy.

Next Steps and Potential Outcomes

The way ahead is uncertain how the two sides will proceed on the territorial issue. The Ukrainian leader has earlier mentioned that a negotiated arrangement like a special economic area could be conceivable if the citizens of Ukraine voted for it in a referendum. The critical stumbling block is likely to be when the plans are presented to President Vladimir Putin of Russia, who has given no sign he is prepared to concede on his military objectives.

“Should Russia refuse all proposals, we will face exactly what we are experiencing on our plane right now – turbulence,” said Zelenskyy, making the statement after his plane took off from Berlin.

“I believe the United States will increase sanction pressure and provide us with more weapons if he rejects everything. I think, that would be a reasonable expectation from us to the Americans,” he added.