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Ordinarily, the National Football League's Head Coach of the Year award follows a simple pattern. It commonly acts as a type of mea culpa. Our apologies we underestimated your squad in our pre-campaign forecasts.

On paper, it's a clear-cut trajectory: the coach who engineered the most dramatic improvement is handed the prize. In reality, it fuels an yearly argument about preseason outlooks and whether we're truly rewarding excellent leadership or merely the greatest shock.

But the latest race is distinctly unique. The group of contenders is exceptionally talented. It has been the campaign of resurgences. The NFL has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and longtime underperformers improving together. During an normal year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the conference would make him the clear front-runner. But in such a wild and entertaining year, he's up against five other outstanding coaches.

This is how the hypothetical vote could shake out.

5) The Chicago Bears Coach, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Coach of the Year selectors are fascinated by QBs. History shows this. Sean McVay in 2017. Another in 2020. A third in 2022. If you fix a franchise QB, you're halfway to winning the award.

The Bears' head coach hasn't just corrected Caleb Williams; he's unleashed him. Given a proper environment, Williams has been afforded the opportunity to showcase his rare talent. From Week 9, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a lucky run – it's sustained excellence. With his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, far less careless, and has willingly submitted to the system instead of going rogue. It is an attack built entirely in the coach's image: a physical ground attack, a consistent helping of play-action passes and a innovative passing attack that springs wide-open receivers everywhere. Williams has taken advantage. And when clear throws weren't there, he's been capable to create big plays from broken plays.

Johnson arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Almost each bet – overhauling the offensive line, featuring the tight ends, transforming Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. This is uncommon for a rookie head coach. And it's even more uncommon yet for a leader who walked into the building with the immense pressure Johnson did. For two straight offseasons, he was the top name on the head coaching carousel. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are no sure things. Somehow, he has lived up to expectations – and even exceeded them. He's proven not just to be a offensive dork but the kind of leader that can inject new life into an franchise.

During a normal season, he would be the clear-cut choice. But this is not a normal year!

The area where Johnson's case runs slightly unstuck is on defense. The Chicago defense presently rank in the bottom third in defensive efficiency. They are living on turnovers, and takeaways are famously unreliable. Defensive minds can emphasise ball disruption, but no one can guarantee it. He is on the ballot because the offense is real. He's ranked lower because variance is doing too much of the defense's work. If not for a couple breaks of the ball, the team would be several victories behind. It's been an remarkable transformation, and the foundation is in place for long-term success. However he falls short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, Their Record

The Jaguars' coach is in a comparable situation to Johnson. He's a fellow rookie head coach who has engineered a dramatic resurgence. During the stretch run of the season, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the finest all-around ball of his professional life. And he's also spearheaded the transformation of a defense that now ranks fifth in the league in Expected Points Added per play.

Even more notably, he has excelled at the intangibles stuff, which was not a given after his early press conference introduction and some of his preseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike Johnson, who surrounded themselves with the ideal coaching blend of youth and veteran savvy, he hired first-timers. Starting with the head coach on down to assistants to assistant coaches, the Jags are stocked with first-timers. That type of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is figuring out a new job in real-time. But he has managed to bring the entire group and all elements into sync.

After an early hot beginning, there was a risk that the season would veer off the rails. A mid-year setback had the team stumbling once more. That's usually when coaches overcorrect. He did not. Rather, he streamlined things. Jacksonville stopped chasing explosive answers and started seeking reliable ones. Coen refocused the offense around his playmakers and the ground attack, and encouraged his QB to use his legs more.

The results are obvious. The Jags have won multiple games in a row and will be the AFC's number three seed. He gets the slightest knock in the rankings because he took over a skilled team, but he has proven he can maximize that roster.

3) Mike Macdonald, His Team, Their Record

Every Coach of the Year argument has a pivotal decision. For the Seahawks coach, it was his quarterback choice.

Moving on from a veteran, signing a different quarterback and partnering him with an innovative offensive coordinator might have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Rather, it made it. Through the middle point of the season, the acquisition was an MVP candidate. He has regressed since that hot streak, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the season, putting him only one spot ahead of other QBs.

Still