Ten years following the UK stumbled into a hurried public vote that polarised the country and unleashed disorder, a warning is issued from across the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a unified Ireland, triggering convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That is the message from two respected writers from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and seismic public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Provoke Discussion
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will bring them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose implications have not been spelled out because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are not reconciled to losing and the those successful don't know precisely what it is that they have gained."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it appears likely that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists say that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but both governments and pro-UK factions play down the likelihood, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of informed dialogue, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the detailed consideration which could extend past that to realise it is mostly absent. A great deal has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or advocates want to engage with the essentials. For instance, what type of nation should be desired? Unitary? Federal?"
Publication's Method
In the book, neither author endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two essays that seek neutrality in laying out the argument for a unified Ireland and the rationale opposing it, gathering economic and societal statistics, past examples and constitutional models.
Arguments cover identity markers, levies, medical care, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and encourage discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," said the writer. "Debate suggests an acceptance of the concept that there could be valid points on each side."
Dual Referendums
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they support unification but reject increased taxation or adopting a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should establish what the plan from pro-unification movements is other than just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a national vote in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "You could have just a reckless or a poor or a incompetent official who states: 'We should proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have reasonable, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will win on this issue and somebody will in the end not succeed but both parties has possesses important lessons to learn from the alternative positions."
Request for Broader Dialogue
Westminster should engage with the discussion, urged O’Toole. "This involves Britain. It is a British issue just as much as it is an Irish issue."
