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New Yorkers will learn who will be their next mayor this Tuesday, in a race that will determine who governs and protects the country's most populous metropolis at a moment when the former president has vowed to send military troops to the urban center.

In this context, New York has experienced a race for mayor that has matched two very different Democratic figures against one another. The election has turned into an increasingly bitter face-off, marked by alleged racial bias and anti-Muslim sentiment, but it is the political differences between the two leading candidates that could have significant consequences for how the Democratic party fares in next year's midterm elections.

The Progressive Challenger

In the progressive corner is the democratic socialist, the 34-year-old democratic socialist whose rapid ascent and grassroots campaign has attracted global notice. Representing the old guard is the former governor, the former Democratic New York governor now campaigning independently – and benefiting from the support of wealthy contributors and corporations.

With days to go, it is Mamdani, the former longshot who defeated Cuomo in the Democratic primary who is firmly installed as the leading candidate. The candidate, who has campaigned on a platform of affordability and promised to halt rent increases for about two million New Yorkers, has led his rival by double-digits in every poll taken in the fall, and it is very much the younger man's race to lose.

A Bitter Contest

Yet, the former governor, who stepped down as governor in 2021 amid accusations of sexual harassment, has stated clearly he will battle to the end, and not necessarily in an fair manner. He has trashed Mamdani's objectives as unrealistic, and in the final stretch chuckled along as a radio host made Islamophobic remarks about the candidate, who is Muslim. Recently, Cuomo was widely condemned as racist after posting an AI-generated ad that included a series of racial caricatures and showed Mamdani freeing a group of criminals.

It's been a particularly ugly end to an race that could be critical to the direction that the party, struggling in its reaction to the former president's authoritarian grabs, takes in the coming years.

Broader Consequences

Should the progressive wins convincingly, the establishment party leaders who have refused to endorse his bid will be forced to reckon with a message that has resonated with Americans' anger at inequality, soaring price rises and the establishment. It would be difficult for Chuck Schumer and the House leader not to embrace at least some of Mamdani's ambitious ideas about affordability, given the newcomer has created an excitement within the party arguably not seen since Bernie Sanders ran for president eight years ago.

However, if Cuomo, who had been expected to sail to victory in the Democratic primary, achieve a remarkable riches-to-rags-to-riches win, it could cement the party's current model of cautious, uninspiring opposition – a strategy that has angered the party base. A NYC rejection of the progressive's optimistic platform could persuade Schumer and Jeffries that the best plan is to stick to the political center – even as polls show the current iteration of the party is widely disliked nationwide.

Campaign Energy

Voters in the city appear to favor the progressive agenda. Surveys show that Mamdani supporters are far more enthusiastic about their candidate than his opponent's supporters, something that has been apparent during the race. The candidate's snappy videos on digital platforms, his hopeful outlook for New York and his willingness to actually get out and connect with voters in the metropolis has drawn an army of more than 50,000 supporters, many of them youth or new participants.

Personal Attacks

Yet, the former governor, 67, isn't giving up. And with the stakes stacked against him, the former governor has resorted to negative campaigning in the final days.

Following extensive throwing basically everything at Mamdani to see what might resonate, the independent has concentrated on targeting Mamdani directly. He has labelled his rival, who was born in Uganda to South Asian heritage, an “extremist”, and appeared on Fox Business for an interview with Maria Bartiromo, where Cuomo claimed New York “will not survive” his opponent as mayor. It hit bottom recently, when the former governor chuckled and said “that’s another problem” after a radio host said Mamdani would “cheer” another 9/11-style incident.

Political Landscape

This strategy mirrors much of what Trump, who has sent the military reserves to Washington DC and threatened to take similar action to New York, has said about Mamdani, and maybe that shouldn’t come as a surprise. A set of billionaire New Yorkers, including some who donated to the Republican in the 2024 election, have pumped millions into trying to get Cuomo elected, as other powerful voices have pressured Curtis Sliwa to drop out from the contest.

Political Histories

As far as the Cuomo camp, and his billionaire supporters, are concerned, it should never have come to this point. When Mamdani, one of one hundred fifty New York state assembly members, launched his mayoral bid in last year, not many had known him, and in truth, few even paid attention.

Cuomo, by contrast, eased his way into the contest in this year and became the immediate frontrunner. He was the big beast who seemingly held every edge. The quintessential political insider, he had married a Kennedy and worked in a Democratic presidency. He became New York governor in over a decade ago, 17 years after his father, the former governor, stepped down from the same position.

The progressive, who was voted in to the New York state assembly in 2020, does not have the same political heritage. But his commitment to providing no-cost transit and affordable child services – along with the freeze-the-rent pledge – present a more positive vision of the city's direction than his opponent's pessimistic predictions about “mayhem” and unfettered crime, and his vow to increase police presence.

Campaign Controversies

Nevertheless, Mamdani has encountered some challenges in recent days, after footage surfaced appearing to show him suggesting the NYPD and the Israel Defense Forces were intertwined.

“We have to make clear that when the boot of the NYPD is on your neck, it’s been laced by the IDF,” Mamdani said in the recording, filmed at a DSA convention in 2023. The progressive, a vocal opponent of Israel who has said the nation is engaging in atrocities in the Palestinian territory, suggested he was criticizing cooperative programs between the city police and IDF.

Powerful Moment

With the election nearing, Mamdani seems to have gained empathy and backing, however, for his response to his opponent's increasing rhetoric.

The progressive responded to Cuomo’s 9/11 remarks in an heartfelt recording. In it, Mamdani recalled how, when he first ran for state assembly, a Muslim uncle suggested to him that he did not have to tell people about his Muslim faith. It was a realization, Mamdani said, that many Muslim New Yorkers had been told “again and again”: “That security could only be found in the margins of our community. That it is in those shadows alone where Muslims could embrace their true selves, and that if we were to emerge from those seclusion, then it is in those shadows that we must leave our faith.”

Addressing the actions of Cuomo and Sliwa, who has claimed Mamd